Farm income statistics show a mixed U.S. outlook for 2026: net farm income is forecast to decline, while net cash farm income edges higher in nominal terms. Crop receipts are expected to grow, animal-product receipts to fall, and production expenses to rise. Household figures also show why farm income alone does not describe the financial position of many farm families.
Contents
- U.S. farm-sector outlook for 2026
- Crop, livestock, and expense drivers
- Government payments supporting farm income
- Income by commodity specialization
- Farm household income
- Income differences by farm type
U.S. farm-sector outlook for 2026
The USDA Economic Research Service Farm Sector Income Forecast forecasts U.S. net farm income at $158.4 billion in 2026. That is $4.3 billion, or 2.6%, below 2025 in nominal dollars. After adjusting for inflation, the decline is larger: net farm income is forecast to fall $9.1 billion, or 5.5%, from 2025 to 2026, measured in 2026 dollars.
Net cash farm income follows a different path. It is forecast at $176.4 billion in 2026, an increase of $0.7 billion, or 0.4%, from 2025 in nominal dollars. In inflation-adjusted terms, however, net cash farm income is forecast to decrease $4.6 billion, or 2.5%, between 2025 and 2026. The distinction matters because nominal growth can coexist with a real decline in purchasing power.
| U.S. farm-sector measure | 2026 forecast | Change from 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Net farm income | $158.4 billion | Down $4.3 billion (2.6%) nominally |
| Net cash farm income | $176.4 billion | Up $0.7 billion (0.4%) nominally |
| Farm cash receipts | $540.3 billion | Down $1.7 billion (0.3%) nominally |
| Production expenses | $492.8 billion | Up $21.2 billion (4.5%) |
The same USDA forecast places total farm cash receipts at $540.3 billion in 2026, down $1.7 billion, or 0.3%, from 2025 in nominal dollars. In inflation-adjusted terms, receipts are forecast to decrease $18.0 billion, or 3.2%, from 2025 to 2026. Direct government farm payments totaled $27.9 billion in 2025, making policy support an important part of the recent income picture.
Crop, livestock, and expense drivers
The 2026 forecast divides receipts into two broad directions. Crop cash receipts are forecast at $253.0 billion, up $14.6 billion, or 6.1%, from 2025. Animal and animal-product cash receipts are forecast at $287.3 billion, down $16.4 billion, or 5.4%. In inflation-adjusted terms, crop receipts are forecast to increase $7.5 billion, or 3.1%, while animal and animal-product receipts are forecast to decline $25.5 billion, or 8.1%.
Crop results vary substantially by commodity. Corn cash receipts are forecast to increase $6.8 billion, or 11.3%, in 2026, mainly because of higher quantities sold. Soybean cash receipts are forecast to increase $4.3 billion, or 10.0%, mainly because of higher prices. Cotton cash receipts are forecast to increase $0.7 billion, or 12.5%.
Other crop categories have weaker or mixed outlooks. Vegetable and melon cash receipts are forecast to rise $3.8 billion, or 15.0%, because of higher prices. Fruit and nut cash receipts are forecast to decrease $0.1 billion, or 0.4%. Rice cash receipts are forecast to decrease $0.6 billion, or 19.6%, mostly because of lower quantities sold. Wheat cash receipts are forecast to decrease $0.3 billion, or 2.5%.
Expenses are moving upward even as total receipts weaken in real terms. U.S. farm-sector production expenses are forecast at $492.8 billion in 2026, up $21.2 billion, or 4.5%, from 2025. Livestock and poultry purchases are projected at $71.9 billion, up $7.4 billion, or 11.4%, and are the largest expense category in the forecast. This cost pressure helps explain why stronger crop receipts do not translate directly into stronger net farm income.
Government payments supporting farm income
Direct government farm payments are forecast at $47.4 billion in 2026, up $19.5 billion, or 69.8%, from 2025, according to the USDA forecast. The total includes several types of support with different purposes and payment structures, so the overall figure should not be read as a single uniform program.
Supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance is forecast at $26.5 billion in 2026, up $5.3 billion, or 24.9%, from 2025. Farm Bill payments tied to commodity prices or revenue are forecast at $15.6 billion, an increase of $13.4 billion from 2025. Dairy Margin Coverage payments are forecast at $169.9 million, up $167.0 million from 2025.
Conservation payments are expected to total $5.3 billion in 2026, up $757.9 million, or 16.9%, from 2025. These figures describe forecast government payments and should be kept separate from market receipts when comparing the underlying performance of crop, livestock, and other farm businesses.
Income by commodity specialization
The USDA Farm Business Income estimates show wide differences in average net cash farm income by the commodity specialization of the farm business. These are 2026 forecasts compared with 2025, not economy-wide averages for every farm.
| Farm-business specialization | 2026 average net cash farm income | Change from 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Dairy | $477,500 | Down 12% |
| Hog | $395,800 | Down 10% |
| Cotton | $370,700 | Up 24% |
| Corn | $306,100 | Up 46% |
| Specialty crops | $286,700 | Down 3% |
| Wheat | $125,300 | Up 189% |
| Soybeans | $112,000 | Up 44% |
| Other crops | $89,000 | Up 21% |
| Cattle and calves | $50,300 | Approximately unchanged |
| Poultry and eggs | Negative $3,400 | Down 102% |
Cotton-specialized farm businesses are forecast to average $370,700 in net cash farm income in 2026, up 24%. Corn-specialized businesses are forecast at $306,100, up 46%. Wheat-specialized businesses are forecast at $125,300, up 189%, while soybean-specialized businesses are forecast at $112,000, up 44%.
Specialty-crop businesses are forecast at $286,700 per farm, down 3%. Other-crop businesses are forecast at $89,000, up 21%. On the livestock side, dairy-specialized businesses are forecast at $477,500, down 12%, and hog-specialized businesses at $395,800, down 10%. Cattle-and-calf businesses are forecast at $50,300, approximately unchanged from 2025. Poultry-and-egg businesses are forecast at negative $3,400 per farm, down 102% from 2025.
Farm household income
Farm-business income and farm-household income are different measures. The USDA principal farm operator household finances series reports that median farm income for U.S. farm households was negative $1,830 in 2024. Median off-farm income was $86,900, and median total household income was $102,748.
The 2026 forecasts show a similar reliance on income earned away from the farm. Median farm income is forecast at negative $467, while median off-farm income is forecast at $93,975. Median total household income is forecast at $108,460. These medians indicate that a household can have negative farm income while still reporting positive total income because off-farm earnings are included.
Average figures are higher than medians and describe a different point in the distribution. In 2024, average farm income for U.S. farm households was $31,304, average off-farm income was $128,030, and average total household income was $159,334. The gap between the averages and medians reflects the uneven distribution of farm and household income across operations.
The same USDA series estimates 1,819,554 U.S. family farms in 2024 and projects 1,808,509 for 2025. The 2025 figure is a projection, while the 2024 figure is an estimate; they should not be treated as identical measurement types.
Income differences by farm type
The USDA farm household finances by farm type reports 947,515 residence family farms, 671,265 intermediate family farms, and 200,775 commercial family farms in 2024. Farm type is associated with major differences in both farm income and the role of the farm in household finances.
| 2024 family-farm type | Number of farms | Median farm income | Median total household income |
|---|---|---|---|
| Residence | 947,515 | Negative $2,748 | $120,848 |
| Intermediate | 671,265 | Negative $2,799 | $70,886 |
| Commercial | 200,775 | $174,933 | $261,149 |
Residence-farm households had median farm income of negative $2,748 in 2024 and median total household income of $120,848. Intermediate-farm households had median farm income of negative $2,799 and median total household income of $70,886. Commercial-farm households had median farm income of $174,933 and median total household income of $261,149.
The share of farms with positive farm income also differed by type. Thirty-five percent of residence farms had positive farm income in 2024; among those farms, farm income represented 8% of total household income at the median. Forty-two percent of intermediate farms had positive farm income, and it represented 27% of total household income at the median among those farms.
Commercial farms were more likely to report positive farm income: 84% had positive farm income in 2024. Among those commercial farms, farm income represented 80% of total household income at the median. Together, these figures show why a single national farm-income statistic can conceal very different financial realities for residence, intermediate, and commercial farm households.